Briefing 2: Births and Deaths (March 2021)

Overview

The purpose of this briefing note is to outline the data on deaths, which shows the possible implications of COVID-19, where there has been an important change.

The table below shows that while Glasgow had an excess of births over deaths until an abrupt change in 2020; for the areas surrounding Glasgow, and for Scotland in general, there had been an established trend for the number of deaths to exceed births that has been magnified in 2020.

Table 1: Trends in Births and Deaths

Source: National Records of Scotland.

Trends in Births and Deaths

Given the pandemic, the increase in the number of deaths has been expected, even though there is a debate as to how much of the increase is attributed to COVID-19.

Less easy to explain is the decrease in the number of births and in particular in Glasgow, whereas elsewhere it is more a continuation of existing trends. Given the timing, the decrease in births is not likely to have been related to the pandemic or lockdown.

Between 2019 and 2020 the number of births in Glasgow fell by -10.4% (NGC -7.3%; Scotland -6.2%); and whilst both Aberdeen and Edinburgh saw a decline in the number of births, the decline was greater in Aberdeen (-11.2%) and lower in Edinburgh (-2.9%).

The overall pattern of the number of deaths exceeding the number of births has been established across many areas in Scotland, and the pandemic has accelerated this existing trend, and for the first time in many years in Glasgow.

There was a 15.4% increase in deaths in Glasgow between 2019 and 2020; similar to the increase in the NGC (15.7%) and notably higher than the increase in Scotland (10.3%). For comparison, the increase in Aberdeen was 3.3%; and in Edinburgh 12.4%.

Trends in Births and Deaths (Selected Dates)

As important as the increase in deaths in Glasgow is, it is in fact lower than in previous years.

As the table below shows, in the late 1990s and early 2000s it was common for the number of deaths to be higher than the 2020 level. Overall, the number of deaths in Glasgow fell in line with other areas in Scotland until the recent increase.

Table 2: Trends in Births and Deaths, Selected Dates

Source: National Records of Scotland

The 2020 level of deaths was last at this level in 2003, when the population was lower than the current level (7,695 deaths and a population of 572,300). The 2020 figure of 7,286 (total population 633,100) is lower than in 2001 (population 578,700) and in 1996 (population 598,800). The pattern of deaths over time is quite different in Scotland, where the 2020 figure is the highest since 1996.

There are several explanations as to these differences, such as differences in the age composition of the population, and patterns of in and out-migration for different age groups. Glasgow has, however, become known for high rates of premature death, although as the trends up to 2020 show, there has been a steady decline in the overall number of deaths.

It is worth repeating the point that the number of deaths in Glasgow in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, was the same as the number in 2003 and lower than the numbers in the late 1990s (when there was no pandemic but a pattern of premature death itself the legacy of the 1980s when the predominant economic influence in Glasgow was de industrialisation).