Briefing 3: Universal Credit (April 2021)

Overview

Universal Credit brings together out-of-work benefits and tax credits and will eventually replace Income-based Jobseeker's Allowance, Income-related Employment and Support Allowance, Income Support, Working Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit and Housing Benefit.

As a dataset, Universal Credit allows for assessments to be made of unemployment and, because eligibility is extended to those in work, levels of in-work poverty.

Claims for Glasgow (2020)

Recent data shows the impact of COVID-19 and the associated lockdown in Glasgow.

Table 1: Universal Credit Claims for Glasgow during 2020

Source: DWP

With an estimated working age population of 447,300 (NOMIS, aged 16 to 64, 2019) the percentage of the working age population on Universal Credit change has increased between February and December as follows

• In-work claimants: from 2.2% to 5.5%
• Unemployed claimants: from 5.8% to 10.5%
• All claimants: from 8.0% to 16.0%

It should be noted that these figures exclude people that have been furloughed.

Claims in Context

Using the estimates of the working age population in the NGC (763,400) and Scotland (3,497,800), Glasgow's December uptake rates compares as follows:

• In-Work: Glasgow 5.5%, NGC 5.1%, Scotland 5.1%
• Unemployed: Glasgow 10.5%, NGC 8.9%, Scotland 8.5%
• All claimants: Glasgow 16.0%, NGC 14.0%, Scotland 13.6%

Table 2: Universal Credit Claims in Context (for comparison)

Source: DWP

Geographical Variation in Claimant Rates

As expected, there is considerable geographical variation in these claimant rates. Using data for Intermediate Datazones some areas have been identified that have over one in four of eligible adults claiming Universal Credit, these are:

• Castlemilk: Glenwood North
• Drumchapel: Drumchapel North, Drumchapel South, Drumry East
• East End: Dalmarnock
• Govanhill: Govanhill East & Aikenhead, Govanhill West
• Greater Govan: Govan & Linthouse, Ibrox East & Cessnock
• Greater Pollok: Carnwadric West, Crookston South
• North Glasgow: Maryhill East, Milton East and Wyndford

Further details on the increase in Universal Credit claims for areas in Glasgow are available on the spreadsheet.

Claimant Rates (Surrounding Local Authorities)

Although Glasgow has been most affected, there are other areas in surrounding local authorities that have claimant rates in excess of 25%, these are:

• East Dunbartonshire: Hillhead (Kirkintilloch)
• Inverclyde: Greenock Town Centre & East Central, Greenock Upper Central
• North Lanarkshire: Cumbernauld Central, Craigneuk Wishaw
• Renfrewshire: Paisley North West
• South Lanarkshire: Fairhill, Hillhouse, Burnbank Central & Udston (all in/near Hamilton)

Data by Age of Claimant

As the data is available by age of claimant, a later briefing will estimate levels and concentrations of young people receiving a form of Universal Credit.

Universal Credit is preferable to other measures; the ONS advice as set out in the Office for National Statistics is "to interpret monthly movements in the Claimant Count with caution".