GCHSCP Demographics and Needs Profile

Tables 1-12 illustrate key characteristics of the 635,130 people living in Glasgow City with comparison to the 5.48 million population of Scotland, according to the most recent population estimates (2021). These characteristics include population density, gender, age, ethnicity, asylum seekers/refugees, English language proficiency, country of birth, sexual orientation and religion.

Please note that due to their large size, Tables 2a-c, 3a-c, 4a-c, 6b-c and 7b-c are not included in this Profile narrative format. These tables are detailed population estimates by single year of age or age-band and gender for HSCP localities, electoral wards and neighbourhoods and are available in the Excel file accompanying this report.

Tables 13a-b show the estimated population projections of Glasgow and Scotland over the 20 year period 2023 to 2043. (These projections were published in March 2020 and do not therefore take account of any impact that the coronavirus pandemic may have had on population).

Tables 14a-b show the estimated population projections of Glasgow by locality and ward 2023 to 2030. (These projections are 'experimental statistics' which were published in August 2020 and do not therefore take account of any impact that the coronavirus pandemic may have had on population).

Table 1: Total Estimated Population, Land Area and Population Density by Area

^{_{Source: NRS - 2021 Mid-Year Population Estimates     © Crown copyright 2022}}

Key Points (Table 1)

1. Population density for Glasgow is more than 50 times the average for Scotland, where 3,635 people live in each square kilometre in Glasgow compared to 70 in each km² across Scotland overall.

Tables 5a-c. General Population Estimates by Age-band, Gender and Area/HSCP Locality

The tables below show locality population by age-band for children 0-17 years, adults 18-64 years and older people 65+ years.

Tables 5a-c in the accompanying Excel file also provide details of locality population by age-band for children 0-15 years, adults 16-64 years and older people 65+ years.

Table 5a. General Population Estimates by Age-band and Area/HSCP Locality - All People

^{_{Source: NRS - 2021 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE)                 © Crown copyright 2022}}

Table 5b. General Population Estimates by Age-band and Area/HSCP Locality - Males

^{_{Source: NRS - 2021 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE)                         © Crown copyright 2022}}

Table 5c. General Population Estimates by Age-band and Area/HSCP Locality - Females

_{^{Source: NRS - 2021 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE)                                                     © Crown copyright 2022}} 

Key Points (Tables 5a-c)

1. Glasgow has an 11.6% share of Scotland's all people population, an 11.7% share of Scotland's male population and an 11.5% share of Scotland's female population. Most people, males and females living in Glasgow live in the South (All and F 36.2%; M 36.3%) followed by North West (All and M 35.0%, F 35.1%) and then North East (All and M 28.7%; F 28.8%) localities.
2. North East and South localities have very similar profiles in terms of population share by age-band. North West has a lower percentage share of children and older people population and a higher share of adult population for all people, males and females.
3. There are more females than males overall in all three Glasgow localities, Glasgow City and Scotland with this also reflected in the gender balance of the adult and older people populations (with the exception of South locality where there are more adult males than females). For children, there are more boys than girls in each of the localities, Glasgow City and Scotland.

Table 6a. General Population Estimates by Age-band and Electoral Ward/HSCP Locality/Area - All People

_{^{Source: NRS - 2021 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE)                         © Crown copyright 2022}}

_{Notes: Please refer to Tables 6a-c in the accompanying Excel file for details of population by electoral ward and age-band of children 0-15 years, adults 16-64 years and older people 65+years for all people, males and females.}

Key Points (Table 6a)

1. The Anderston/City/Yorkhill ward has the highest number of people of all ages living in it (34,926 - 5.5% of Glasgow total). The Greater Pollok ward has the highest number of children (7,457 - 6.7%); Anderston/City/Yorkhill ward has the highest number of adults (30,357 - 6.9%) and Cardonald ward has the highest number of older people (5,195 - 6.0%).
2. The North East ward has the lowest number of people of all ages living in it (21,080 - 3.3% of Glasgow total). The Anderston/City/Yorkhill ward has the lowest number of children (2,644 - 2.4%); North East ward has the lowest number of adults (13,448 - 3.1%) and Anderston/City/Yorkhill ward has the lowest number of older people (1,925 - 2.2%).
3. The ward profiles that differ most from the Glasgow average of 17.5% children (0-17), 68.9% adults (18-64) and 13.6% older people (65+) in terms of population share by age-band are all in the North West locality. These are Anderston/City/Yorkhill with 7.6% children (0-17), 86.9% adults (18-64) and 5.5% older people (65+); Hillhead 11.8% children (0-17), 78.9% adults (18-64) and 9.3% older people (65+) and Partick East/Kelvindale 10.3% children (0-17), 75.2% adults (18-64) and 14.5% older people (65+).
4. Other notable differences from the city average population shares are higher percentages of child population in North East (23.0%) and Greater Pollok (22.4%) wards; lower percentages of adult population in Cardonald (62.0%) and Linn (62.6%) wards and higher percentages of older people population in Shettleston (17.9%), Cardonald (17.9%) and Linn (17.1%) wards.

Table 7a. General Population Estimates by Age-band and Neighbourhood/Area - All People

_{^{Source: NRS - 2021 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE)                         © Crown copyright 2022}}

_{Notes: Please refer to Tables 7a-c in the accompanying Excel file for details of neighbourhood population by age-band for children 0-15 years, adults 16-64 years and older people 65+ years.}

Key Points (Table 7a)

1. The Hyndland/Dowanhill/Partick East neighbourhood has the highest number of people of all ages living in it (24,010 - 3.8% of Glasgow total). The Baillieston/Garrowhill neighbourhood has the highest number of children (3,647 - 3.3%); Hyndland/Dowanhill/ Partick East neighbourhood has the highest number of adults (18,846 - 4.3%) and Baillieston/Garrowhill neighbourhood has the highest number of older people (3,451 - 4.0%).
2. The Carmunnock neighbourhood has the lowest number of people of all ages (914 - 0.1% of Glasgow total), children (164 - 0.1%), adults (533 - 0.1%) and older people (217 - 0.3%) living in it.
3. The neighbourhood profiles that differ most from the Glasgow averages of 17.5% children (0-17), 68.9% adults (18-64) and 13.6% older people (65+) in terms of population share by age-band are Carmunnock for all age-bands, as noted above; City Centre/Merchant City (7.2% children, 86.6% adults, 6.1% older people); Dennistoun (10.5% children, 80.2% adults, 9.3% older people); Drumchapel (26.4% children); Hillhead/ Woodlands (11.2% children, 79.9% adults, 8.9% older people); Hyndland/Dowanhill/Partick East (9.1% children, 78.5% adults); Ibrox/Kingston (8.8% older people); Mount Vernon/East Shettleston (24.6% older people); Pollokshields East (8.5% older people); Priesthill/Househillwood (24.7% children); Ruchazie/Garthamlock (24.6% children) and Yorkhill/Anderston (8.7% children, 85.9% adults, 5.4% older people).

Tables 8a-c. Ethnicity of All People and School Pupils; Asylum Seekers/Refugees

Table 8a. General Population Estimates by Ethnicity Banding and Area/HSCP Locality

^{_{Source: NRS - 2021 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE) and NRS - Scotland's Census 2011          © Crown copyright 2022}}

^{_{Method: Prevalence rate from 2011 Census data (total 2011 datazone population) is applied to 2021 SAPE}}

Key Points (Table 8a)

1. The ethnic profile of Glasgow's population is very different from that of Scotland overall with Glasgow City having a percentage of Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) people (11.5%) almost 3 times that of Scotland (4.0%). There are also differences in the ethnic profile of the population within Glasgow with a BME population in North East of 7.0%, North West 12.5% and South 14.2%.

Table 8b. Ethnicity of School Pupils by Sector and Area (all pupils*)

_{^{Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census - Supplementary Statistics 2022}}

_{Notes: * grant aided school pupils included in Scotland figures, not individual local authority figures}

Key Points (Table 8b)

1. More than a quarter of Glasgow (local authority) school pupils (26.3%) have a Minority Ethnic background which is almost three times the percentage of Minority Ethnic pupils of Scotland overall (10.1%). The percentage of Minority Ethnic pupils in Glasgow (26.3%) is also more than double the percentage of the Minority Ethnic population of Glasgow (11.5%) shown in Table 8a, indicating higher levels of diversity in the child population than the adult population of Glasgow.

Table 8c. Asylum Seekers and Refugees by Area

^{_{Source: 1. Scottish Government Pupil Census - Supplementary Statistics 2022; 2. UK Government Statistics (Home Office) - Asylum and Resettlement - Local Authority Data, year ending Dec 22: (a) Asylum Seekers in receipt of Section 95 support by LA; (b) Refugees resettled under Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme (VPRS) or Vulnerable Children Resettlement Scheme (VCRS) by LA.}}

_{Notes: * excludes grant aided school pupils.}

Key Points (Table 8c)

1. 1,638 Glasgow pupils are seeking asylum, representing 79.4% of the national total, compared to Glasgow's 10.1% share of pupils overall. Glasgow schools have 1,975 pupils who are refugees, 34.4% of all pupils who are refugees, in Scotland.
2. Among the overall population, 9 in 10 of Scotland's asylum seekers are living in Glasgow (4,698 - 90.2%). A far smaller number of 521 people are refugees resettled since 2014 living in Glasgow, representing 13.6% of all Scotland's resettled refugees, compared to Glasgow's 11.6% share of the national population of all people (Table 5a).

Table 9.  General Population Estimates by Country of Birth and Area (adults 16+)

​​​​​^{_{Source: NRS - 2021 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE) and 2019 Scottish Survey Core Questions (SSCQ)         © Crown copyright 2022}}

^{_{Method: Prevalence rate from 2019 SSCQ applied to 2021 SAPE total population}}

Key Points (Table 9)

1. 77.5% of Glaswegians were born in Scotland or elsewhere in the UK compared to 88.8% of Scottish people. 22.5% of Glasgow people were born outside of the UK - more than twice the percentage of 11.1% of Scots born outside the UK.

Tables 10 a-b. English Language Proficiency of All People/School Pupils and Use of Other Language at Home

Table 10a.  General Population Estimates by English Language Proficiency / Other Language Use at Home and Area (all people aged 3+)

^{_{Source: NRS - 2021 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE) and NRS - Scotland's Census 2011              © Crown copyright 2022}}

^{_{Method: Prevalence rate from 2011 Census data (total 2011 datazone population) is applied to 2021 SAPE total 3+ population (Glasgow=616,939; Scotland=5,332,623)}}

Key Points (Table 10a)

1. An estimated 16,539 people in Glasgow do not speak English well or at all, with the Glasgow rate of 2.7% of the aged 3+ population being almost double that for Scotland (1.4%). 13.1% of Glaswegians use a language other than English or BSL at home, compared to 7.2% of Scots.

Table 10b.  School Pupils English Language Competence / Main Home Language by Area (all pupils)

^{_{Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census - Supplementary Statistics 2022}}

_{Notes: Total pupils for Glasgow = 71,342; Scotland = 705,874}

Key Points (Table 10b)

1. Almost a fifth of Glasgow school pupils (18.8%) are at an early stage of learning English as a second language - more than three times the percentage for Scotland of 5.2%. Similarly, more than a quarter of Glasgow pupils (27.1%) have a main home language other than English, Gaelic, Scots or BSL - almost three times the percentage of 9.8% of Scottish pupils.

Tables 11a-b. Sexual Orientation of All Adults/School Pupils

Table 11a. General Population Estimates by Sexual Orientation and Area (adults 16+)

^{_{Source: NRS - 2021 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE) and 2019 Scottish Survey Core Questions (SSCQ)          © Crown copyright 2022}}

^{_{Method: Prevalence rate from 2019 SSCQ applied to 2021 SAPE total adult 16+ population}}

Key Points (Table 11a)

1. Glasgow has almost twice the percentage of LGBTi people (5.7%) as Scotland (2.9%).
    

Table 11b. Glasgow S1-4 School Pupils LGBT Sexual Orientation

^{_{Source: NHSGGC Schools Health and Well-being Survey - Glasgow City 2019/20}}

Key Points (Table 11b)

1. 9.0% of school pupils are LGBT, far higher than the 5.7% rate for LGBTi Glasgow adults (Table 11a).

Table 12. General Population Estimates by Religion and Area (adults 16+)

^{_{Source: NRS - 2021 Small Area Population Estimates (SAPE) and 2019 Scottish Survey Core Questions (SSCQ)          © Crown copyright 2022}}

^{_{Method: Prevalence rate from 2019 SSCQ is applied to 2021 SAPE city & national total adult 16+ populations}}

Key Points (Table 12)

1. More than half of the Glasgow adult population report of belonging to a religion (52.3%) with most following Roman Catholic (20.9%) or Church of Scotland (14.0%) religions. In Scotland more than half of adults (53.7%) have no religion, however most that do, belong to the Church of Scotland (21.5%) or Roman Catholic (13.6%) faiths.

Tables 13a-b. Population Projections 2023 to 2043 - Number of People and Percentage Change

Please note that the undernoted population projections are high quality estimates based on past trends using certain assumptions which do not take account of the many factors that may influence population change. Further information on limitations is available on the NRS website. Major factors that have impacted on population since these 2018 based projections were calculated include the Covid pandemic and Brexit, for instance.  

Table 13a. Population Projection Estimates 2023 to 2043 by Age-band and Area - Number of People

^{_{Source: NRS  population projections 2018 based                                                                            © Crown Copyright 2020}}

_{Notes: The 2023 age-band projections, which were based on 2018 (pre Covid) population figures, differ to actual population figures by varying degrees. Overall, the projections for Glasgow and Scotland 2023 population, are higher than actual 2023 population, by less than 1%. For Children 0-17 and Adults 18-64, the projections for Glasgow and Scotland 2023 population are 1% or less higher or lower than actual 2023 population. For Older People 65+ the projections for Glasgow and Scotland 2023 population are 3% and 4% higher than actual 2023 population.} 

Table 13b. Population Projection Estimates 2023 to 2043 by Age-band and Area - Percentage Change from 2023

_{^{Source: NRS  population projections 2018 based                                                           © Crown Copyright 2020}}

Key Points (Table 13a-b)

1. The total population of Glasgow is forecast to increase by almost 7,400 people (1.2%) between 2023 and 2028, by almost 14,900 (2.3%) between 2023 and 2033 and by more than 25,800 (4.1%) between 2023 and 2043. Lower rates of overall population growth are forecast for Scotland of 0.8% between 2023 and 2028, 1.2% between 2023 and 2033 and 1.4% between 2023 and 2043.
2. It is expected that the adult population of Glasgow will increase marginally over the ten-year period 2023 and 2033 by 0.2%, while the child population is likely to decrease by 5.6% during this time. Both the adult and child population of Scotland is expected to decrease between 2023 and 2033 by 2.3% (adults) and 7.3% (children). The older people population of both Glasgow and Scotland is expected to grow hugely over this 10-year period by 22.5% (Glasgow) and 19.7% (Scotland).
3. In the 20-year period 2023 to 2043, the Glasgow child population is likely to decrease by 6.9% compared to a 9.1% decrease for the Scotland child population. The Glasgow adult population is expected to grow by 1.6% over this period while the adult population of Scotland is expected to decrease by 3.1%. The older people population of both Glasgow and Scotland is expected to grow hugely over this 20-year period by 29.6% (Glasgow) and 24.9% (Scotland).

Tables 14a-b. Population Projections 2023 to 2030 - Number of People and Percentage Change

The undernoted population projections by electoral ward are experimental statistics that have been calculated by the Improvement Service. They are high quality estimates based on past trends using certain assumptions which do not take account of the many factors that may influence population change. These calculations were made using 2018 population data, before the pandemic and Brexit impacted on population for instance. Population projections are less reliable for small populations and reliability decreases the further you go into the future. These detailed figures should be treated with caution. Further information on the limitations of these Projections is available on the Improvement Service website. 

Table 14a. Population Projection Estimates 2023 to 2030 by Age-band and Electoral Ward/HSCP Locality - Number of People

_{^{Source: Improvement Service Sub-Council Area Population Projections (2018 based)}}

Table 14b. Difference in Projected Population 2023 to 2030 by Age-band and Electoral Ward/HSCP Locality - Number of People and Percentage

_{^{Source: Improvement Service Sub-Council Area Population Projections (2018 based)}}

Key Points (Table 14a-b)

1. The total population of Glasgow is forecast to increase by 10,372 (1.6%) between 2023 and 2030, with increases also expected within Glasgow for North East locality of 6,810 (3.7%) and North West locality of 6,872 (3.0%). A decrease is expected for South locality of 3,310 (-1.5%), over this period. By ward, the projections vary widely from a decrease of -8.4% in the total population of Pollokshields to an increase of 18.7% in the total population of Anderston/City/Yorkhill. 
2. Within the North East locality increases are forecast for all age-bands 2023 to 2030. The child (0-17 years) population is expected to grow by 666 (1.9%), the adult (18-64 years) population by 1,938 (1.6%) and the older people (65+) population by 4,206 (16.1%).
3. Projections 2023 to 2030 vary widely by ward within the North East locality. The child population forecasts range from a decrease of 407 (-13.9%) for Dennistoun to an increase of 1,369 (21.9%) for Calton. For the adult population this ranges from a decrease of 805 (-5.7%) for Baillieston to an increase of 4,079 (16.5%) for Calton. The older people population of all wards is expected to increase, ranging from 81 (3.7%) for Dennistoun to 934 (23.3%) for Baillieston.
4. Within the North West locality the child (0-17 years) population is expected to decrease by 1,514 (-4.6%) 2023 to 2030. The adult (18-64 years) population is forecast to increase by 3,479 (2.1%) and the older people (65+) population is also forecast to increase, by 4,907 (17.0%).
5. Projections 2023 to 2030 vary widely by ward within the North West locality. The child population forecasts range from a decrease of 950 (-16.4%) for Drumchapel/Anniesland to an increase of 987 (33.0%) for Calton. For the adult population this ranges from a decrease of 1,294 (-7.0%) for Drumchapel/Anniesland to an increase of 5,801 (17.0%) for Anderston/City/Yorkhill. The older people population of all wards is expected to increase, ranging from 331 (8.7%) for Canal to 537 (27.3%) for Anderston/City/Yorkhill.
6. Within the South locality the child (0-17 years) population is expected to decrease by 3,017 (-7.0%) 2023 to 2030. The adult (18-64 years) population is also forecast to decrease, by 5,444 (-3.7%), while the older people (65+) population is forecast to increase by 5,151 (15.0%).
7. Projections 2023 to 2030 vary widely by ward within the South locality. The child population forecasts range from a decrease of 987 (-23.1%) for Pollokshields to an increase of 568 (9.4%) for Southside Central. For the adult population this ranges from a decrease of 2,075 (-12.2%) for Linn to an increase of 1,251 (6.5%) for Southside Central. The older people population of all wards is expected to increase, ranging from 370 (9.2%) for Newlands/Auldburn to 1,516 (30.2%) for Greater Pollok.